John Campbell, a former United States of American Ambassador
in an interview with Punch talked about his view about Nigeria, noting that it
has not changed and that the country faces formidable challenges that will
either make or break it based on the choices made by Nigerians Excerpts from
the interview below:
In your critically acclaimed book, Nigeria: Dancing on the
Brink, you talked about Nigeria exhibiting symptoms of a failing/fragile state.
Has your view changed?
My view has not changed about the serious challenges Nigeria
faces. I think the challenges are more pronounced than they were before the
Boko Haram insurrection began in the North. Political life is also unsettled by
the approach of the 2015 elections. The ruling party has not yet presented a
candidate. But most observers expect that the president will seek re-election.
As for the opposition party, there does not seem to be a consensus presidential
candidate.
Will you say things have gone from bad to worse since you
wrote that book?
The challenges Nigeria faces at the moment are considerable
and differ somewhat from four years ago when I wrote the book. Considering what
you wrote in your book four years ago, if you were to revise it again, what
will you add about Nigeria? I would pay more attention to the problems of
corruption. It is mind-boggling how millions of dollars go missing. Take for
instance, the serious allegation made by the former Central Bank of Nigeria
Governor, Lamido Sanusi. He has claimed that an amount he variously estimated
at $10 billion, $20 billion and $50 billion is unaccounted for. The Finance
Minister has called for an audit, but I do not believe the results have yet
been made public. There are different types of corruption in Nigeria. For
example, there is petty corruption. Nigerian policemen are poorly paid. At a
checkpoint you hear a policeman saying ‘Do you have anything for me today?’
Because they are poorly paid, it will be difficult for them to keep their
families without the ‘bribes’ they levy to let people pass through their
checkpoints. Another instance is where a civil servant insists on being paid to
perform a service which is supposed to be free of charge. This type of
corruption will be very difficult to deal with because it will require a
massive restructuring of salaries paid to public servants. But, then there is
the corruption where millions of dollar go missing through rigging of
contracts, money laundering or oil bunkering.
Many see your book as a doomsday prediction for Nigeria.
What exactly was the focus of the book? In my book, the focus was to tell the
American people how vastly important the country Nigeria is to America.
I should add that a few Nigerians who see it as a prediction
of the collapse of their country are mistaken. It is a warning, however, that
Nigeria’s challenges must be addressed. Nigeria faces huge challenges. The
confluence of Boko Haram, upcoming 2015 elections and the epidemic of ethnic
clashes leave it as it were ‘dancing on the brink.’
Did you point to 2015 in your book?
So far I can recall, I did not point to 2015. There is an
‘urban legend’ in circulation among some Nigerians that, somehow, the United
States wants to see Nigeria break apart. Nothing could be further from the
truth. US policy consistently has been to support the unity of Nigeria. My own
warnings about the challenges Nigeria faces have also been taken by some as
somehow promoting Nigeria’s breakup. As a person who knows Nigeria well, I can
imagine no greater disaster. It doesn’t appear the Federal Government is happy
about the Boko Haram situation but many Nigerians feel it is not doing enough.
What more do you think the government can do?
The Boko Haram insurgency is complex and diffuse. Boko Haram
does not appear to be a conventional political struggle. Shekau does not speak
in conventional political terms in his videos. So far as I am aware, he never
refers to “economic development.” There are also splinter groups, such as
Ansaru. Therefore, the government will need to follow a multi-pronged strategy.
I think the Federal Government should go back and look at the recommendation by
the National Security Adviser, Sambo Dasuki, in April. These are well-thought
out long-term solutions. If the government carefully follows through, this
could be an effective approach to the insurgency. It seems, at the moment, the
Nigerian government isn’t looking at the Dasuki recommendation. What does this
portend and what are some of the points of the recommendation? The former
national security adviser’s proposals are well-thought out and long-term in
scope. They would also require a significant diversion of government spending.
They likely will require a long time to implement. What disappoints me is that
there is no sign that preparatory work is being done, and Dasuki’s recommendations
seem to have largely disappeared from public discourse. It is possible, of
course, that government’s preparation is going forward. If so, I wish the
Jonathan administration would publicise what it is doing. The UK law banning
sales of lethal weapons to Nigeria is still extant; the US is hesitant on fully
assisting Nigeria in the fight against terrorism, reportedly, because of the
African country’s records of human rights violations.
Is that enough to keep them away from helping Nigeria?
Nigeria’s military human rights record is not encouraging.
It’s one of the reasons the United States of America’s assistance to the
Nigerian military is limited. Any US military assistance to Nigeria is governed
by American law, including the Leahy Amendment that requires the US assistance
to be suspended if a military unit is credibly accused of human rights abuses.
A lot is being said about the Boko Haram insurrection, from
being a political attempt to discredit the incumbent president to being a
religious madness of some militants. Where do you think the real cause of this
violent crisis in Nigeria
lies?
Boko Haram has become a political football between the
governing party and the opposition party in this pre-election period. I have
heard the allegation that the opposition party and Boko Haram cooperate to
discredit the present administration. On the other hand, there is the
allegation that Goodluck Jonathan is using Boko Haram to prevent 2015 elections
from taking place in the North. I don’t think there’s any truth to these two
scenarios. But such accusations indicate a lack of trust among many Nigerians.
The drivers of northern alienation that Boko Haram feeds on are a sense of
political marginalisation, economic impoverishment, and resentment of security
service human rights abuses. Why would you say one of the drivers of Northern
alienation that Boko Haram feeds on is a sense of political marginalisation?
Yes, Boko Haram feeds on a sense of political marginalisation along with
economic marginalisation. Poverty in north-east Nigeria is, in the best of
times, among the world’s worst, as are the social statistics. But, alienation
and marginalisation have far more complicated roots than just poverty. My sense
is that many in northern Nigeria feel “dis-respected” by their fellow
countrymen, and certainly Abuja has long ignored it.
How and by who are they marginalised?
With the end of “zoning,” many political figures sense that
they will be excluded permanently from power in Abuja. But, the North-East is
also ‘marginalised’ by many businessmen in the South, who avidly pursue
opportunities in other parts of Africa but ignore the North. Opinion leaders,
too, often dismiss the North as ‘backward.’ Factors such as this all contribute
to marginalisation.
More than 100 days away from their schools, from their
parents, their neighbours and the normal society, the whereabouts of the
abducted Chibok schoolgirls remains a mystery. Can their rescue ever be pulled
off? By what means do you think this can happen?
I think it is extremely difficult to rescue the abducted
schoolgirls. It is possible that the girls are held captive in more than one
place. And if that’s the case, rescuing the girls won’t be easy. The Nigerian
government has always been open to negotiate with Boko Haram. It has always
opted for dialogue. But Boko Haram has always refused to negotiate. What the
terrorist group initially asked for was that the wives and children of its
members who are in extra-judicial detention should be released. Subsequently,
the Islamist group demanded the release of its operatives in exchange for the
girls. That’s dangerous. Third-party negotiation is not that simple. If Boko
Haram is highly diffuse, it may be that Shekau is just one of many leaders in
the group. It’s difficult to know exactly who you’re dealing with.
Do you think the Federal Government’s employing an American
PR firm is a solution to the current Boko Haram insurgency?
Foreign governments often employ public relations firms to
burnish their image in the United States; most of the time, I think it’s a
waste of money. I also think harassing the legal demonstrations by
BringBackOurGirls is not right. What the campaigners are doing is entirely
legal.
What do you think about the loan request of the president to
fight Boko Haram?
I am not the National Assembly; but, I think there are a lot
of questions. Why is the loan necessary, given Nigeria’s anticipated revenue?
What steps are being put in place to prevent corruption?
You show keen interest in the Nigerian nation; what’s the
attraction?
Why am I interested in Nigeria? I think Nigeria is an
extraordinarily attractive country. Its artistic achievements are
under-reported; what is being achieved in terms of arts does not get enough
publicity. The paintings in my small collection from Nigeria are widely
admired. Also, Nigeria’s contribution to music is tremendous – high-life, for
example. Some think it originated in Ghana but actually it is Nigerian. Nigeria
is very big — it is almost a world unto itself.
How do you think the Nigerian government can ensure a
credible, free and fair election come 2015?
It is going to be a major challenge. I have heard concerns
expressed by Nigerian civil organisations about the state of election
preparations. Then there is the question of how to conduct free and fair
elections in the three states under a State of Emergency. The election in Ekiti
State does not fill me with confidence. Elections are, of course, much more
than polling day. It will be essential that the ballot counting and the
collating of the results be transparent if the elections are to be credible —
to Nigerians. That is what really matters: that the elections should be
credible to Nigerians throughout the country.
Do you think the US-Africa Summit scheduled for August 4-6
will be an opportunity for Mr. Goodluck Jonathan to seek more assistance from
the US president?
I am not qualified to say what President Jonathan will ask
for.
With increasing turbulence in Nigeria, what impact can it
have on the African continent and on nations like America?
Nigeria has been Africa’s ‘indispensable’ country. It was a
founder and animator of Economic Community of West African States and the
African Union. It addressed a range of security crises ranging from Liberia to
Sierra Leone to Cote d’Ivoire. Not now. I think a strong, outward-looking
Nigeria would have led to a very different, and more positive, outcome to the
Mali crisis than what happened – and made non-African intervention unnecessary.
Nigeria was the most important strategic partner of the United States in
Africa. Now that Nigeria is almost entirely focused on Boko Haram and the
upcoming elections, that partnership is on the shelf.
Interestingly, with all its economic incursion into Africa,
China appears to be silent about Nigeria’s challenge. Will you say this is
deliberate?
I cannot say what motivates China’s policy toward Nigeria.
Cameroon also is facing attacks from Boko Haram insurgents.
Do we say the terrorist group is a West African issue or why is its violence
extending to neighbouring nations?
Violent insurrections can be found straight across the Sahel
in differing forms. What they seem to have in common is a local focus and a
response to bad governance. I do not see evidence of coordination for a common
purpose among the various insurgent groups, though they may share tactics and
even occasionally personnel.
From your observatory, what insights can you offer on
Africa’s political and security development?
In general, the way forward for Africa is improved
governance and the strengthening of democratic institutions and the rule of
law. Where that is achieved, economic development will surely follow. Positive
examples are Botswana and South Africa.
A lot of Nigerians are already wondering if their country
won’t end up like Libya, Iraq or Afghanistan. How close or far is Nigeria from
any of these countries’ situation?
I am leery about such comparisons. Libya, Iraq, Afghanistan,
and Nigeria are very different countries with different histories. Nigeria’s
future will be determined by choices Nigerians make. The same is true of Libya,
Iraq, and Afghanistan.
If you have an audience with Mr. President, what will you
tell him to do?
I would ask him quickly and responsibly to address security
service, human rights violations in the country.
No comments:
Post a Comment