Saturday, July 5, 2014

A FAIR SUMMATION OF THAT SHALLOW AUTOMOTIVE POLICY AGANGA AND JONATHAN ARE TRYING TO SELL TO NIGERIANS : Abraham Ogbodo: Aganga and the Nigerian car ... GuardianNews

olusegun aganga
by Abraham Ogbodo
It is so difficult understanding the thinking and working of government in Nigeria. Here, the institution of government appears to run on its own most of the time without the people. Last week, there was apprehension in the air following media report that the federal government had begun the implementation of a policy that would attract 70 per cent tariff and duty payment on all imported vehicles and auto parts.
The media reports highlighted the underlying danger in the policy, which was that it would cause the prices of vehicles to hit the rooftop and completely out of the reach of many Nigerians. This sounded alarming, forcing the Minister of Industry, Trade and Investment, Dr. Olusegun Aganga to do some explaining after the mid-week meeting of the Federal Executive Council (FEC) to put the issues in perspective.
But in the end, the minister spent good time creating semantics that explained little or nothing. His handling has made the issue even more complicated. Aganga is saying yes and no at the same time to the operation of the 70 per cent tariff regime. In one breath, he denied the raising of tariff on imported vehicles from 20 to 70 per cent and admitted in another breath that the tariff would apply only to those he described as engaging in outright trade in vehicles and who would not want to key into the new automotive policy of government.
I don’t exactly understand the category of auto dealers that constitutes free traders. I guess the minister is talking about businessmen and women who go to manufacturers abroad and ship in road-ready vehicles for sale in Nigeria. These are the bad guys who must pay through their nose to ply their trade. The good guys, who shall enjoy a tariff holiday, according to Aganga, are those who create some measure of local value chain by bringing in Completely Knocked Down (CKD) parts to be assembled into complete vehicles in Nigeria.
In other words, instead of showrooms, Minister Aganga wants auto dealers to build assembly plants so that the value between CKDs and the coupled vehicles could be channelled into the domestic economy to further increase the GDP base. Aganga has promised that the new approach will create jobs and encourage technology transfer. It is an obvious point that does not require special emphasis. But as if doubting the efficacy of his prescription in meeting domestic demand, the minister added that in the event of shortfalls, the assembly plant owners alone would be allowed to import road-ready vehicles at 35 per cent tariff to bridge the gap. He is offering the best of two worlds to the good guys.
But first, the enthusiasm with which Dr. Aganga is pursuing this policy is exaggerated. In the context of the national economy, he is not inventing anything and I expect him to know this. He has come from Goldman Sachs to sound like an inventor of car assembly plants, as if nothing like that had existed before now in Nigeria. We have had Peugeot Automobile of Nigeria (PAN) in Kaduna, Volkswagen of Nigeria (VON) in Lagos, Anambra Motor Manufacturing Company (ANAMMACO) in Enugu, Nigeria Motor Industry in Kano, Steyr Motor Company in Bauchi and Leyland Motor Company in Ibadan.
These are outside the ancillary companies like manufactures of tyres, glass, batteries, belts, upholstery etc.; that serviced these assembly plants. I do not know how many years that Aganga had spent outside the country before he returned home to serve his fatherland. But he cannot claim ignorance of the existence of key industry players like Michelin, Dunlop, Exide Batteries, Oluwa Glass, West Africa Glass and the many manufacturers of belts, bolts and nuts in the Nnewi axis at some point in Nigeria. This was the same time when a Peugeot car and any other locally assembled vehicle had over 30 per cent local content.
Today, the once flourishing auto industry is as dead as dodo. Most of the assembly plants have been sold and their new owners have not seen the need, or more appropriately, have not been encouraged by the hostile operating environment to sustain the tempo. It was even more horrifying with the parts manufacturers, with the likes of Michelin and Dunlop closing shops and leaving Nigeria under the PDP controlled Federal Government. Also, auto batteries are no longer produced in Nigeria at any meaningful scale, while other outfits including the glassmakers have since remodelled their production lines to keep out servicing of assembly plants.
As it is evident, attaining success is not so much a problem in Nigeria. We can massively launch out and record gains. The problem has been sustaining or building on gains already attained. This is why the phrase ‘the old good days’ has remained constant in the description of every department of the national life. With the current automotive policy, Minister Aganga is only trying to bring back the memories of the good old days. To think that Daewoo Motors and Kia Motors in South Korea, which are today leading names in global auto manufacturing were first established as assembly plants made the Nigerian story even more pathetic.
Dr. Aganga who has come to revive the dead dream is unfortunately not following due process. Maybe hungry to associate himself with some policy landmark or big achievement in the Jonathan government, the minister has skipped certain questions, which must be asked and answered going forward. For instance, what has so dramatically changed in today’s operating environment to warrant the replacement of auto show rooms with assembly plants?
Industrialisation is a process that builds steadily and it cannot be decreed into force like a piece of law under military dictatorship. We allowed what was built-up over years to dissipate rapidly for nothing. How does the minister hope to bring back the complex production interconnection that sustained the auto industry years ago to make the new policy meaningful?
To convince one importer of fully built-up cars to transform overnight to a manufacturer does not answer the vital question of value creation. Since the accompanying industrial infrastructures are dead, what Aganga will achieve with his policy is importation of fully built cars by another name. Which component of the Nissan car that will be assembled in Nigeria will be locally sourced? Even if the fellows are ready to run with the policy on local content, there are no manufacturers of tyres, batteries, belts, glass, bolts, nuts, etc to build the required percentage of that content.
   To answer the question about change, things have actually changed greatly but not in the direction we envisaged. Public electricity is almost nonexistent in spite of load of official promises to turnaround things. This is a change. The tokubo culture has come to stay and in fact, is the most vibrant sector of the auto industry in Nigeria. This is also a change, which began in the mid 80s. While it takes about N2.5million to get an average brand new car, whether locally assembled or imported, about 28 per cent of that amount or N700,000 will fetch a good second hand version that will serve the same purpose.
  Part of the challenges therefore is convincing a man (and woman too) whose annual income is less than N3million to go for a brand new car that will be assembled in Ngeria instead of a tokubo. It is needless to add that brand new vehicles have vanished from the domestic scheme of the Nigerian middle class. It is now the exclusive luxury of the upper class, public officials and the corporate world.
   The other thing that could help the new automotive policy is unfortunately lacking in Nigeria. This is efficient mass transit system. And because it is this way, everybody needs a personal car to transit from point ‘A’ to ‘B.’ The Aganga idea of a Nigerian car cannot meet this vital need of Nigerians.
   Thus everything taken together, Minister Aganga is not offering any solution either in the short or long run with the prohibitive 70 per cent tariff on auto imports. The starting point is to create an environment to bring back the service companies, which will ultimately lead to the return of the assembly plants. His prescription is too automatic for a good cure and also sounds too much like building something on nothing. If e too much, Nigerians will flood neighbouring countries to guarantee their tokunbos and even brand new cars. And thesecountries, if Aganga cares to know, are all too ready to lower their tarrifs to undercut Nigeria. In the end, it will be penny wise, pound foolish
   This kind of disconnection is somehow becoming the trademark of the imported experts in the federal cabinet. They are the Bretton Woods professionals who love to stand out from the crowd even when it does not pay to do so. They concoct noisy theories that do not blend well with the socio-political milieu and call it best practices as if what is best is practised in isolation of other variables.

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