The National Think Tank Group has released results of a survey it carried out to determine the winner of the 2015 presidential election coming up on March 28.
The two-page analysis of the survey, tagged: “Straw Prediction of 2015 Presidential Election”, made available to Daily Sun by Dr. Peter Orji, gave Buhari/APC an estimated votes of 15.4 million and President Goodluck Jonathan of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), 11 million which indicates that Gen. Buhari won.
The survey by the group reveals that Buhari will “predictably” win in the North which it will be a close call in the south
The researchers stated that they arrived at the figures after “a careful study of the demographics of Nigeria voting patterns,based on an unbiased analysis of how voters shall cast their votes.”
According to the group, Buhari would lead in the North-East, North- West, North-Central and South-West, while Jonathan would win in the South-South and South-East.
The survey said Buhari would eventually have an upper hand going by heavy votes he would record in his catchment areas against Jonathan, who the survey said, would garner fewer votes in his areas of strength.
However, unlike 2011, General Buhari, the survey said, “will secure substantial votes in the North-Central and greatly improve his showing in the South-East.
The distribution of the votes across the zones as predicted by the survey is thus: “North-Central, PDP, 1.73million, APC, 1.86million. North-East, PDP, 1.3million, APC, 2.55million. North- West, PDP 2.15million, APC, 5.65million. South-East, PDP 1.65million, APC, 650,000. South-South, PDP, 2,.2million APC, 1.7million. South- West, PDP, 2million, APC, 2.9million. FCT, PDP, 150,000, APC, 200,000.
In summary, the survey revealed that, “the APC candidate will carry all the states in North-West and North- East and will win marginally in North- Central,” saying, “the margin of victory for Gen. Buhari is a staggering 4.4million votes and it is impossible for President Jonathan to close such a margin.”
What would boost Buhari’s victory in the North-East and North-West, the poll explained, would largely be due to expected increase in the voters’ turnout, “whilst the turnout in the South-East and South-South is likely to decrease.
The simple explanation, according to the group, “is that the North-East, North-West and South-West zones feel that their sons, Buhari and Osinbanjo, are on the APC ticket and considering the number of votes accruing to the three zones, Jonathan will find it absolutely impossible to fill the gap.”
The survey analysis was concluded with the group saying that, “because of the postponement that occurred five weeks ago, a repeat this time will not go down well with Nigerians who very likely will accuse the administration of having its hand in disrupting the process, and because of the tight timelines to avoid a possible constitutional crisis a shift in the elections this time may become impossible to contemplate.”
Gen. Buhari seems to be having a bit of luck with mock polls as another group, Eurasia group also predicted a victory for the former Major General.
Eurasia is the World largest political risk consultancy.
In his reaction to Buhari’s mock victory, Jonathan said;“You may wish General Buhari win as you deem, but God’s shall be carried out on that day.”
“Those people you keep quoting are not in Nigeria, and do not have any link to the grassroots in Nigeria, and do not even know what is happening here.”
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