In six days, Nigerians will file out for the long-awaited poll. The past six weeks has been dotted with intense bickering, lobbying, ‘naira and dollar rains’, and outright hate campaigns. Yusuf Alli, Managing Editor, Northern Operation, Sam Egburonu, Associate Editor, Dare Odufowokan, Assistant Editor, Remi Adelowo, Assistant Editor and Sunday Oguntola review the outlook in the 36 states and the FCT and project likely outcomes.
This Saturday Nigerians will determine who will lead them in the next four years. Out of the 55,904, 272 eligible voters who had collected their permanent voter cards (PVCs) as at Friday, March 20, 2015, 31, 957, 327 will vote in the 19 Northern states and the Federal Capital Territory (FCT).
Before the February 7 postponement the momentum was clearly on the side of the presidential candidate of the All Progressives Congress (APC), Gen. Muhammadu Buhari. The six-week shift pushed through by the Presidency was supposed to enable President Goodluck Jonathan and the ruling Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) regain the initiative.
However, certain unscripted interventions may have worsened the case of the incumbent in certain regions. First Lady, Dame Patience Jonathan may have gravely damaged her husband’s chances in the North when she accused Northerners of poor family planning. She said: Wetin him dey find again? Him dey drag with him pikin mate…Old man wey no get brain, him brain don die pata pata. Our people no dey born shildren wey dem no dey fit count . Our men no dey born shildren throway for street. We no dey like the people for that side.”
Not even the successful military campaign against the insurgents in the North-East has altered the dynamics of the race in the North. A status report on the presidential contest from state to state follows – beginning with those in the North.
KEBBI
The tide is much more in favour of APC because many stalwarts or match-winners of PDP have defected to the opposition. They include leaders like ex-FCT Minister, Adamu Aliero, Sen. Muhammadu Magoro, Bala Na’Allah, Suleuiman Mohammed Argungu and even APC governorship candidate, Sen. Atiku Bagudu.
The signs of the APC increasing acceptance emerged when the outgoing First Lady, Zainab Dakingari, personally took on the former FCT Minister who handed her over to the governor.
The depth of APC’s grassroots support was underlined by the action of an 80-year old woman came out openly to donate her life savings worth N1million to Buhari after waiting for nine hours to meet the former head of state.
The situation has degenerated to the extent that angry citizens of the state now heckle Governor Saidu Dakingari at rallies. To win election, most candidates of PDP for National Assembly and State House of Assembly elections have refused to identify openly with Jonathan.
A source said: “The PDP is having it rough because of the poor performance of the governor; imposition of candidates for elective offices; mass defection to APC by grassroots politicians; and lack of unity. With all these problems, APC is in the blood of everyone in this state.”
Verdict: An 80-20 vote spread likely in favour of APC.
NIGER
Despite spirited moves to deny his association with the opposition and disparage Buhari at the PDP presidential campaign rally, Governor Babangida Aliyu knows the game is up for his party in the state. Even the manner in which Aliyu was panting and making unsolicited and irrelevant remarks suggested he was facing some electoral challenges. PDP’s fortunes further slipped down with the defection of the Deputy Governor, Musa Ibeto to APC. This is in addition to the loss of Niger East Senatorial District by-election seat to APC’s David Umar. The National Assembly Election Tribunal declared Umar as the validly elected senator instead of Nuhu Zagbayi of PDP. The refusal of the governor to handover to his deputy while going for lesser Hajj has boosted APC’s chances.
Verdict: A 60-40 spread in favour of APC.
KWARA
Kwarans are still celebrating the tumultuous crowd which welcomed APC’s presidential campaign train to the state. The crowd doubled a similar one for PDP. Rather than allowing campaign to move on smoothly, the PDP has resorted to violence with the attack on some APC leaders and members including the campaign convoy of the wife of APC presidential candidate, Mrs. Aishat Buhari.
The presidency is covertly trying to woo the gamesmaster of Kwara politics, Dr. Bukola Saraki, to its side but with its recourse to media blackmail of APC leaders, the battle line is drawn. The only survival straw of PDP now is to reach out to the church and make it to believe that the general election is a religious war. The APC is trying to discountenance the propaganda.
Verdict: APC to win the state in a 70 to 30 vote spread.
BAUCHI
The war between Governor Isa Yuguda and the FCT Minister, Bala Mohammed, since the stoning of the presidential convoy in Bauchi has further polarised PDP in the state. The leaders are now working at cross-purposes in a political terrain that is not entirely under the control of PDP. At a point, the governor was accused of producing both the PDP and APC governorship candidates in a deft political move to win either way during the general election. PDP National Chairman, Alhaji Adamu Muazu, has been accused of not working hard enough for the victory of Jonathan. In fact, Mu’azu on Thursday was quick to tell party members that “…I do not see a landslide coming.” The state has always been a political stronghold of Buhari in the last 12 years.
Verdict: APC to win by 70-30 per cent.
SOKOTO
Governor Aliyu Wamakko and the APC are gaining more ground in the state. Known as “Alu Sai Alu”, Wamakko strongest points are ability to relate freely with the poor at the grassroots; ability to deliver on his promises; and a performance which has overshadowed the records of his predecessors, especially ex-Governor Attahiru Bafarawa. The internal crisis in PDP has buoyed the governor and APC’s chances of coasting home to success. As at press time, thousands of supporters of Deputy Governor Mukhtar Shagari had chosen to work for APC rather than the party’s governorship candidate, Ambassador Abdallah Wali.
Verdict: APC victory in an 80-20 vote spread.
KOGI
A major headache of PDP in the state is the poor performance of Governor Idris Wada which has been attributed to inherited debts from the administration of ex-Governor Ibrahim Idris. The relapsing health challenge of the governor has slowed him down in gaining electoral advantage for the president. The non-payment of minimum wage to primary school teachers’ has pitched PDP against the masses. This is also creating electoral threat to the ruling party’s success. The PDP is sticking to old jokers of ethnic, cultural and religious prejudices.
The fact that there is no governorship poll in Kogi State has made the battle very close between the PDP and APC. Also, the defection of major stakeholders in Kogi East and Kogi Central has given APC a slight edge above PDP. The stakeholders from Kogi East are Alh. Linko Ocheje (the strong man of Ankpa politics); Mallam Sani Egwu; Gen. Salifu Atawodi; Chief John Odawn (the long-serving state PDP chairman); Sen. Alex Kadiri; Sen. Yahaya Ugbane; Hon. Ikani; Hon. Gowon (IGN); Hon. Ismail Ina Hussein; Hon. Adejoh Akowe; Hon. Musa Idoko; and Hon. Aduku Ojodale.
Those who left PDP for APC in Kogi Central are Sen. Mohammed Ohiare; Sen. Salihu Ohize; ex-Speaker Abdullahi Bello; Chief Michael Ozovehe; Alh. Idris Ozi Shuaibu; Hon. Sule Kokori; Hon. Kabir Ajanah; and Hon. Bashir Sani Omolori. In Kogi West, some PDP chieftains who have defected to APC and other parties are ex-Yagba West LGA chairman, Hon. Tunji Aro; former Chairman, Yagba East, Hon. Abdulkadir Jimoh Salahudeen(a.k.a Erukutu); former Chairman, Mopamuro LGA, Hon. Pedro Obadofin; Hon. Salifu Akawu Sule; ex-Chairman, Kotonkarfe LGA, Hon. Shaba Mohammed; and Commodore Foluso Daniels.
Those trying to salvage PDP in Kogi State now are Sen. Smart Adeyemi (Kogi West) and the Minister of Justice and Attorney-General of the Federation, Mr. Mohammed Bello Adoke (SAN), who can no longer afford to remain in the background as a technocrat. The rescue mission of the Minister to Kogi Central Senatorial District for the PDP has made the game difficult for APC in the area. Adoke had offset the SSCE fees of all final year secondary school students in the five local government areas in the district. Kogi is now 50-50. A top source said: “We are not voting for Jonathan because of his failure to fulfill any of the promises made to leaders of Kogi West/ Okunland, led by the late Chief S.B. Daniyan at his pre-2011 election meeting with them at the Presidential Villa.
“Also, several critical PDP stakeholders have refused to defect openly to other parties and have vowed to give surreptitious support to the opposition to ensure the decimation of the PDP at the polls. And very much like Mr. President, Governor Wada has not been able to come to grips with his mandate, nearly four years in office.
Verdict: Too close to call.
TARABA
Despite his bombshell against some ex-militants, a former Minister of Defence, Gen. Theophilus Danjuma, holds the ace for PDP victory in Taraba State. But APC and SDP are giving PDP some headache in the state. When the Acting Governor, Alhaji Abubakar Danladi, kicked off his senatorial campaign in Karim Lamido; he was greeted with chants of “Ba mu yi”. The yeoman’s job of Sen. Aishatu Alhassan (Sai Mama) has improved the prospects of APC. The religious factor is being exploited by PDP to secure its reign in the state. One thing is certain: Buhari will secure the mandatory 25 per cent of the total votes cast.
Verdict: PDP to win
KADUNA
The disastrous campaign outing of the PDP presidential campaign train to the state indicated that the party is unpopular in the state. With some empty seats at the stadium and the shout of Sai Buhari, President Jonathan and members of the PDP presidential Campaign team were rattled. Findings revealed that APC and Buhari are in control of the northern part of Kaduna like Zaria and Lere. The opposition has always controlled the Central Senatorial District too especially Birnin Gwari, Kaduna North, Kaduna South and Igabi.
Disunity is the bane of PDP in the state with 80 per cent of supporters and loyalists of ex-Governor Ahmed Makarfi defecting to APC.
The spate of killings in Southern Kaduna, the removal of the former GMD of NNPC, and the sack of a former chairman of SURE-P, Lt. Gen. Martin Luther Agwai (rtd) might make it difficult for PDP to retain its grip on the state.
The anger in Southern Kaduna against the PDP is much and it will be difficult for Jonathan to assuage it. To add to the burden of PDP, the choice of the APC Deputy Governorship candidate, Arc. Barnabas Bala Bantex has made the ruling party in the state to run helter-skelter. Bantex is loved by the people of Southern Kaduna and he is said to be a rallying point for them
Unfortunately for the President, he is being careful in directly intervening in the party’s affairs in Kaduna State because it is the domain of his deputy. The race appears headed towards victory for APC unless Vice-President Namadi Sambo overhauls his party’s campaign machinery.
Verdict: APC to win 60-40.
PLATEAU
Unknown to many Nigerians, the race is tighter in Plateau State this time around between PDP and APC because of the manner in which the PDP primaries were rigged in favour of some candidates and the demand for power shift. The people of Southern and Central Plateau have rejected the imposition of another governorship candidate, Sen. Gyang Pwajok from Plateau North on them after eight-year tenure of Governor David Jang. Out of the 17 local governments in the state, Plateau North has six, South (six) and Central is left with five. Motivated by the urge for power shift, the people of Southern and Central Plateau have opted for APC leaving only Plateau North in PDP. The APC governorship candidate, Hon. Simon Lalong is from Southern Plateau and his deputy is the immediate past Vice Chancellor of the University of Jos, Prof. Sonny Tyodem from Plateau Central. On its part, the PDP picked its candidate, Sen. Gyang Pwajok from Plateau North and deputy, U.G. Gomwalk from Kanke in Plateau Central.
More PDP leaders and members have also moved over to APC forcing most political office holders from Plateau State, like the Minister of Water Resources, Mrs. Sarah Ochekpe, to relocate home to salvage the situation. Out of the 16 governorship aspirants in PDP, 13 defected to APC, two remain neutral and Pwajok is on his own. Though the defectors have succeeded in shaking PDP, the ruling party in the state has a narrow edge over APC due to the population advantage of Plateau North. Governor Jang has sustained religious and tribal politicking to checkmate the growing influence of APC in the state.
Verdict: Battleground
ZAMFARA
Ex-Governor Sani Yerima and his political son, Abdulaziz Yari, have continued to enjoy more grassroots support in the state. They are having an easy ride because the politics in the state has followed the same pattern since 1999. The State Publicity Secretary of APC, Sani Ahmed Gwamna, said the party has no opposition in the state. “Everybody knows that since the beginning of the Fourth Republic in 1999, PDP has never won an election to form government in Zamfara,” he said. The aloofness of the Minister of Defence, Gen. Aliyu Gusau, to the presidential campaign has foreclosed any good outing for PDP.
Verdict: A 70-30 vote spread in favour of APC.
ADAMAWA
The centre no longer holds in Adamawa PDP to the extent that President Jonathan made an emergency shuttle to the state last Saturday. He got more than he bargained for when stakeholders only promised to vote for him during the presidential poll. Overwhelmed by the challenge at hand, Jonathan paid a nocturnal visit to ex-Vice President Atiku Abubakar for help. Instead, Abubakar shunned his invitation to return to PDP.
The party is locked in a cold war following the failure of its recent reconciliation over the choice of ex-EFCC chairman, Mallam Nuhu Ribadu as the party’s governorship candidate. Ribadu’s olive branch is yet to be accepted by stakeholders who are embittered about the conduct of the party’s primaries in Abuja. The PDP’s headache is how to heal all wounds and defeat the PDM candidate, Dr. Ahmed Mohammed Modibbo and the APC candidate, Sen. Jibrilla Bindo. It is certainly an open race in Adamawa where Buhari’s wife hails from. Adamawa is 50-50 for the presidential election.
Verdict: Battleground
BENUE
More than any period in his political career, Governor Gabriel Suswam of Benue State is fighting for his own survival such that he finds it difficult to take the party’s governorship candidate, Terhemen Tarzor along. Suswam is in a cul-de-sac because of inability to pay workers minimum wage; owing of workers six months’ salaries; prolonged strikes in the state which led to closure of schools for eight months and a sharp drop in popularity rating.
The defection of ex-Minister Samuel Ortom and Chief Barnabas Gemade to APC is still haunting the PDP. This development has forced Suswam to embark on aggressive dusk- to- dawn campaign. With a high prospect of winning two out of the three senatorial districts in the state, APC is giving PDP sleepless nights. The game remains 50-50 in the state because of ethnic and religious factors which Suswam may latch on. Otherwise in a free and fair atmosphere, it is APC’s.
Verdict: Battleground
GOMBE
Notwithstanding the denial of security threats in Gombe State by Governor Ibrahim Dankwambo at the National Council of State meeting, the state is prone to political violence because the ruling PDP is feeling the competitive heat of the opposition. The formidable structure of ex-Governor Danjuma Goje, which produced the governor in 2011, is formidable to the extent that attempts were made to set Goje up on phantom security offences. The situation now is such that APC and PDP are in a 50-50 rating.
Verdict: Battleground
BORNO
Despite insurgency, the massive turn-out at APC presidential campaign rally in Maiduguri has destabilized PDP and Jonathan camp. The PDP’s woes in the state worsened on Wednesday when a Federal High Court in Abuja declared Gambo Lawan as the authentic governorship flag-bearer of the party in Borno State. Justice Ahmed Mohammed ordered the PDP to substitute the name of Alhaji Mohammed Imam with Lawan. The judgment was a setback for ex-Governor Modu Ali Sheriff whose candidate Imam was. A party source said: “We are in disarray; we were devastated by the judgment. Supporters of Imam will rather work for APC than Lawan.”
Though the state is still one of those classified as facing security threats at the last Council of State meeting, it remains APC territory. The campaign so far has revealed that the PDP is depending on federal might to capitalize on the insurgency in the state to manipulate the electoral process. The APC relies on the integrity and achievements of Governor Kashim Shettima, despite all odds, to retain the control of the state.
Verdict: APC to win by an 80-20 per cent vote spread.
YOBE
With two out of the three senatorial districts in its kitty, Yobe remains firmly hooked to APC because the state had pitched tent with the opposition since 1999. Ex-Governor Bukar Ibrahim, the political godfather of the state, has been the pivot. With the achievements of Governor Ibrahim Gaidam, retaining the state is easier for APC. The PDP, which initially had challenges over the choice of its governorship candidate, Adamu Maina Waziri, is coming up stronger but is unlikely to displace APC. The decision of Major Hamzat Al-Mustapha, a former CSO to the late Head of State, Gen. Sani Abacha, to lie low has diminished the electoral fortunes of PDP in the state. The permutations that Al-Mustapha will be an electoral asset have failed for PDP.
Verdict: A 70-30 scenario in favour of APC is likely here.
JIGAWA
In spite of the ranting of Governor Sule Lamido against APC leaders, the opposition will win the presidential poll in the state. One of the reasons Lamido is begrudging Buhari is the fact that the latter controls large following in Jigawa State. Even under ANPP and CPC platforms, Buhari had always won Jigawa hands down in 2003, 2007 and 2011. Since January, the governor’s comments have given advantage more to Buhari than Jonathan. In January, Lamido told the News Agency of Nigeria (NAN) that “I agreed like every other person that Buhari is an incorruptible, honest, clean and patriotic Nigerian. My concern has always been defectors who our party, PDP, had made ministers, governors, speakers and members of the National Assembly and left us after benefiting so much.” For the presidential race, Buhari is the man to beat in Jigawa. But the governor will cling to any straw to retain the state for PDP in other strands of election.
Verdict: A 70-30 vote spread in favour of APC.
KATSINA
This remains an APC enclave because it is the home of Buhari. During the week, many PDP members tucked their membership cards into big bags and burnt them. The elite forces are also overwhelmingly against PDP. These are prominent Katsina sons seeking power shift, APC strong leaders, those who defected from PDP to APC, and the loyalists of ex-President Umaru Yar’Adua working for Buhari. Though the PDP is trying to survive, the people of the state will vote for APC because they want the presidency which they lost in 2010, due to the death of ex-President Umaru Yar’Adua, to return to the state. The removal of the Acting Executive Chairman of the Federal Inland Revenue Service(FIRS), Mallam Kabir Mashi, at the prompting of some PDP stalwarts, is a minus for Jonathan in the state because it will lead to protest votes against PDP in some parts of the state.
Verdict: APC likely to win the state in a 70-30 format.
KANO
This is still a tough terrain for Jonathan and the PDP. For almost a week, Vice President Namadi Sambo was in Kano to woo opinion leaders and voters. He got more than he bargained for during an interactive session with academic staff who gave the Jonathan administration a low mark.
The Kwankwassiya political dynasty has successfully managed its succession plan which has given APC an advantage to consolidate. The commissioning of some projects in Kano State in recent weeks has added more pep to the score sheet of Governor Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso. The fresh call by the Emir of Kano, Sanusi Lamido Sanusi to the NNPC account for the controversial $20billion oil funds might seal the fate of PDP in the state. But the Minister of Education, Mallam Ibrahim Shekarau is trying his best to salvage the PDP although he can only hope to secure the required 25 per cent of the total votes cast for the President.
Verdict: An 80-20 per cent victory for APC.
NASARAWA
The combined forces of Governor Tanko Al-Makura and a former Secretary of the Board of Trustees of the PDP, ex-Governor Abdullahi Adamu have upstaged the PDP and APGA in the state. Though the APGA governorship candidate, ex-Minister Labaran Maku is whipping up religious sentiments, the outcome of the marathon campaign tours of APC has shown that Al-Makura remains the candidate to beat. His selling point is what a source described as his “humility.” If there was any hope left for Maku, it was shattered by the Director-General of PDP Campaign Organization, Dr. Ahmadu Ali, who described the former Minister as an ingrate. The exit of Maku from PDP has altered the game strongly in favour for APC. Up till now, the PDP campaign in the state has no bite as if the party has resigned to fate.
Verdict: APC to win
FCT
The PDP is leading because it controls the government machinery in the six area councils and it has the biggest war chest for campaign in the territory. The subtle wooing and recognition of traditional rulers has also made the party to penetrate the grassroots. The Vice Presidential Candidate of APC, Prof. Yemi Osinbajo went on campaign tour of the six councils about a week ago but the area is still leaning towards the ruling party.
Verdict: It is still 60-40 in favour of PDP.
ABIA
In Abia State, President Jonathan and PDP are very hopeful of recording a landslide victory. This is because of his unshaken relationship with Governor Theodore Orji, who controls the party machinery. Aside the hope of utilising Orji’s incumbency factor, First Lady Patience Jonathan’s mother hails from the state and this has been used to mobilize support for Jonathan. Also, the PDP has managed to dictate the pace in Abia State politics over the years mainly because of Orji’s style of governance. Until recently, he has succeeded in rendering opposition parties redundant in the state.
Even now that some of opposition parties are gathering steam, most of them like All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA) and the PPA are campaigning for Jonathan.
Our investigation confirms that while governorship and other legislative elections would be a close contest between the ruling PDP and the opposition, Jonathan is likely to win the presidential election here but not with 98 percent as was the case in 2011. In fact, most respondents are optimistic that APC’s candidate, Buhari may get 25 percent votes here unlike 0.31 percent he got in 2011.
Verdict: PDP to win.
ANAMBRA
Anambra State is an All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA)-led state but for the presidency, the state has consistently voted for PDP. In 2011, Jonathan, the PDP flagbearer got 98.96 percent of all the votes cast at the presidential contest.
If not for recent political developments, one would have predicted the same trend, since APGA, as it did in 2011, has no presidential candidate but has pledged to queue behind Jonathan. But unlike what happened in 2011, APC’s Buhari will get reasonable votes from the state.
As Ekwueme, a political father in Anambra State, pointed out, all is no longer at ease with PDP. The elder statesman said “Anambra and Igbo vote can no longer be taken for granted. This is even so as Senator Chris Ngige-led state APC has taken the state by storm thereby popularizing the opposition party there. There is no doubt that APC is very popular in Anambra State and so Buhari seems poised to take advantage of it. Buhari’s major setback in this state and most of the other South-East states is PDP’s continuous campaign that the former Head of State hates Ndigbo and singled out Igbo leaders like Ekwueme, Sam Mbakwe and Jim Nwobodo for imprisonment.
Verdict: Jonathan
EBONYI
Ebonyi State is a traditional PDP state which gave Jonathan 95.57 percent of its votes in 2011. However, some observers say it has become a major battle ground in this election.
The ripple effects from the crisis in PDP, which culminated in the political coup that dislodged control of the party from Governor Martin Elechi is poised to change the state’s political game.
It seems the only things that may guarantee Jonathan success here are Senator Pius Anyim Pius’ determination to market Jonathan’s ability to retain Elechi’s support for the presidency.
Left to the supporters of the embattled governor, who have already moved over to Labour Party, both Jonathan and his party would have been humbled in this state. Many of them would have gladly released protest votes in favour of Buhari. This would have been most feasible because of the increasing strength of the rival APC in the state, where Dr. Ogbonnaya Onu’s influence has come to play.
Verdict: Jonathan
ENUGU
Following alleged reconciliation of the Senator Ike Ekweremadu-led faction of PDP in Enugu and that of Governor Sullivan Chime, Jonathan’s supporters are optimistic he will easily win in the state, where he got 98.54 percent votes against Buhari’s 0.36 percent in 2011.
While it may not be out of place for PDP to be optimistic in Enugu, insiders in the state’s politics said many interests have been hurt in the pre-election politicking. This includes but not limited to the bitterness of the Senator Ayogu Eze’s camp of the PDP.
Added to this is the dynamic campaign of Okey Ezea-led APC, which is poised to serve as a boost to Buhari’s political fortunes in the state. With its Catholic dominated population, there is also the fear in the PDP camp that Father Mbaka’s recent sermon may sway precious votes to Buhari’s box.
Verdict: Jonathan
IMO
Currently, Imo State is an APC state where Governor Rochas Okorocha’s influence is a major boost for General Buhari.
But The Nation learnt that the PDP’s campaign has been tailored to diminish Buhari’s influence as he was lavishly described as an Igbo hater, who singled out Igbo leaders like Chief Sam Onunaka Mbakwe, for jail. The former governor of old Imo State is so adored in the state that this singular campaign may swing the presidency to Jonathan in the state.
So, while APC seems certain to win the governorship election, the presidency may be too close to call or slightly in favour of Jonathan.
Verdict: Too close to call
AKWA IBOM
As far as Governor Godswill Akpabio is concerned, President Jonathan can go to bed regarding the state. He has good reasons to be that optimistic. The state organised the most boisterous campaign event when the President’s team came calling. Almost everyone in Akwa Ibom attended the campaign.
The state has also been a stronghold of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), winning every electoral office since 1999. Having been elevated contentiously to becoming the highest earning state from the federal allocation, Akwa Ibom indigenes will consider voting for Jonathan a favour returned.
But it would be too simplistic to dismiss Buhari’s chances just yet. The APC has been making serious incursions in Akwa Ibom since Obong Umana Umana emerged its governorship candidate. His Uyo senatorial district has the highest voting population in the state and should be angling for their own.
Observers however said the APC might not make much impact at the presidential elections, saying most Akwa Ibom voters will consider the ethnic and religious factors in the choice. Based on these and with an incumbent governor armed with heavy war chests, Jonathan is expected to carry the state easily. But Buhari may be in contention to win at least 25% owing to the Umana’s factor. The defection yesterday of former governor Victor Attah to APC could also be significant.
Verdict: Jonathan
CROSS RIVER
The state should be an easy pie for Jonathan. He is considered a son of the soil and a friend of the state. The proximity of his native Bayelsa state will be an added incentive for voters to pick him in the state.
The PDP has been dominant at all levels in the state since the return of democratic rule. An implosion during the party’s governorship primary that produced Senator Ben Ayade has been well-managed to the amazement of the opposition.
Jonathan, seen as a fellow Christian and South-South brother, will certainly garner massive votes in the state. It is hard to tell how much weight the APC can pull to win votes for Buhari, a Muslim northern. It is even harder to contemplate him winning as much as 25% in the state. Given the ongoing scenario, Jonathan will carry the state without much ado
Verdict: Jonathan wins
RIVERS
If there is a state that can define this presidential election, it would be no other than Rivers. The two leading candidates have gladiators here, sparing no effort or design to make them win. On the side of APC is Governor Rotimi Amaechi, who is Director General of the Muhammadu Buhari’s campaign.
Amaechi, a dogged fighter, is a political veteran. He knows Rivers politics like the palms of his hands. He’s a two-time governor and an ex-Speaker. It has taken nothing more than sheer willpower and doggedness to fight a President and then defect to the opposition party without as much as scratch. For every weapon fired at him, Amaechi returns the salvo with ten deadlier canisters.
The APC has gained much ground since the governor made it his new abode. The governorship candidate, Dakuku Peterside, has a followership capable of intimidating even the bravest opposition.
The party’s chapter has been giving the PDP a run for its money, insisting that Jonathan cannot win the state. APC’s chairman in Rivers, Davies Ikanya, said Jonathan had committed 25 grievous sins for which the state will never vote for him.
The sins, according to him, include neglect, stalling of some projects envisaged to develop the state, lack of implementation of some projects, violence and corruption among others.
The party has been mobilising against Jonathan and pushing Buhari’s candidature with remarkable results, going by attendance at rallies and campaigns.
But the PDP is no pushover yet in Rivers. Not when its governorship candidate, Nyesom Wike, is still around. Wike has fought Amaechi to a standstill, using federal might and presidential connections. He also attracts crowds.
Besides, First Lady, Dame Patience Jonathan, is also from the state. She has been mobilising for her husband among her people. But many are not happy with her role in the standoff in the state. There may protest with votes against Jonathan at the poll.
Being a cosmopolitan state with an incumbent governor rooting for Buhari, the APC presidential candidate may carry the state. Jonathan, on his own, will also make serious impact among voters based on ethnic and religious considerations as well as the influence of his wife.
Verdict: Battleground
EDO
That the 2011 presidential election in Edo State was a stroll in the park for President Jonathan is stating the obvious. The president garnered 542, 173 votes as against 17, 795 votes for Buhari.
The president’s victory in 2011 was largely due to the ‘home boy’ factor, coupled with the maximum support offered him by the state governor, Adams Oshiomhole, who mobilised the people in support of Jonathan.
But next Saturday’s election in the state is likely to be a different ball game, as the governor has turned his back against the President. In the last couple of weeks, he has embarked on a vigorous campaign for the APC presidential candidate and other candidates of the party across the nooks and crannies of the state.
While the Edo governor has intensified campaign for Buhari, no one seems to be doing same for the President, as the acclaimed leader of Edo PDP, Chief Anthony Anenih, appears to be spending more time in Abuja thus delegating the task of campaigning for the president to less influential party chieftains.
During his campaign stumps across the state, the governor’s campaign message that the PDP-led federal government has neglected the state in terms of infrastructural projects has resonated well with the people, many of whom have keyed into the change mantra being propagated by the APC.
The influence of traditional institutions – especially the respected Oba of Benin is also a factor to watch. Sources say a crisis of confidence has broken out among prominent Benin chiefs over who to endorse between the two major candidates.
With just seven days to the election, what has become apparent is that Edo election would be a close call between Buhari and Jonathan who may still be counting on South-South solidarity to prevail.
Verdict: Too close to call
DELTA
In spite of recording a landslide victory in 2011, President Jonathan and the PDP are not taking anything for granted.
And this is understandable. The ruling party is facing some tough challenges ranging from gradual resurgence of the APC in addition to inter-ethnic suspicion and rivalry in the state.
Indeed, if there is one factor that could impact negatively on the President’s electoral chances in the state, it is the alleged disenchantment of some ethnic groups including Itsekiri and the Urhobos against the Ijaws, the President’s ethnic group.
For the Itsekiris, their grouses are legion. First, is the controversy over the site of the $16 billion Delta Gas City project at Ogidigben in Warri South local government area with the Ijaws claiming ownership of the land said to belong to the Itsekiri.
The groundbreaking of the project suffered several postponements until a few weeks ago when the President visited Warri and reportedly appeased the Itsekiri with his commitment to the commencement of the project.
But not a few however believe that the President’s fence mending was borne not out of genuine love for the Itsekiri, but to win their votes in the presidential election.
There are also others who are not happy with how the state governor, Dr. Emmanuel Uduaghan, was “shabbily treated” by the PDP in the run-up to the party’s senatorial and governorship primaries early this year.
The governor’s desire to have his preferred candidate emerge as the governorship candidate not only failed, he was also compelled to step down for an Ijaw man, Senator James Manager, who is running for another term to represent Delta South in the National Assembly.
Among the Urhobos too, there is a sharp division within the influential Urhobo Progressive Union (UPU), the umbrella body of all Urhobos. Some of its leading lights are reportedly drumming support for Jonathan, while others have allegedly pitched their tent with Buhari.
As the largest ethnic group in Delta State, the Urhobos have the numbers to determine where the pendulum of victory would swing in the election.
Verdict: Slim victory for Jonathan
BAYELSA
Four years ago, the opposition was practically non-existent in Bayelsa, the home state of the President. The result of the 2011 presidential election proved
But the situation is different today, thanks to the defection of notable politicians to the APC, including the immediate former governor of the state, Timipre Sylvia, a former senator, Fred Oboro, former Security Adviser to Sylva, Chief Richard Kpodo, former Youth Leader of PDP in the South-South, Mr. Godwin Sidi and a former Chairman of Southern Ijaw Local Government, Timipa Orunemigha.
Since his parting ways with the President and PDP, Sylvia has slowly but steadily positioned the APC as a viable opposition, a development the Presidency is not comfortable with.
Sources say the former governor, who is also contesting for the Senate on March 28 against media entrepreneur, Ben Bruce, is determined to prove a point that he remains a factor in Bayelsa politics.
But more worrisome for the President’s camp, is the threat by some loyalists of the incumbent governor, Seriake Dickson, not to vote for the President over what they perceive as the overbearing influence of his wife, Dame Patience Jonathan, who has been at loggerheads with the governor.
The homeboy factor in spite of the incursion of the APC, analysts argue, would come handy for the President when the chips are down.
Verdict: Safe bet for Jonathan
OSUN
In Osun, which is firmly under the control of the APC, Jonathan will not have a good showing on election day. All through the electioneering campaign, the President found it difficult to get listening ears. His visits to the state have receive no appreciable attention from the people considering the mammoth crowd that thronged the Osogbo City Sports Stadium to receive Buhari and his team twice when he visited the state in continuation of his presidential campaign.
This will be no surprise in Osun where, in spite of his good showing in the region in 2011, the President still lost to the Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN) candidate by a wide margin. With Governor Rauf Aregbesola still in charge and the PDP declining in status by the day, Buhari is positioned to win massively in the state.
Aregbesola’s convincing victory during last year’s governorship election and the rancour that saw PDP losing two former governors of the state, Isiaka Adeleke and Olagunsoye Oyinlola and former Speaker Olubunmi Etteh, to the APC in quick succession will also work against Jonathan.
Verdict: APC 80%; PDP 20%
EKITI
Given current permutations in Governor Ayodele Fayose’s state after the six weeks shift in election date, President Jonathan may run away with a slight victory over Buhari. During the June 21, 2014 governorship election held in Ekiti State, the APC failed to retain the state. The surprise emergence of Fayose as governor is no doubt a boost for Jonathan and the PDP in the presidential election. If the preference of Fayose, an unrepentant Jonathan supporter is to count, then PDP will carry the day.
Of course, the APC is not likely to go down without a good fight in the state given the fact that it is in the majority in the House of Assembly as well as National Assembly members in the state. The fact that it was in charge of the state for four years barely months back, is also an advantage for Buhari. In addition, the reconciliation of Michael Opeyemi Bamidele, gubernatorial candidate of the LP at the last election with the APC leadership will give PDP more troubles.
But Fayose has shown that he’s willing to do all that in necessary to prevail. This may override all other factors and give the day to Jonathan in the state.
Verdict: APC 40%; PDP 60%
ONDO
Few weeks back, the political drama that saw the massive decamping of major political actors from one political party to the other, which started in 2014 and continued into the new year, gave the impression that it may be too close to decide who wins in Ondo State. However, the unresolved intra party crisis that bedeviled the ruling PDP in the state following the entrance of Governor Olusegun Mimiko into the party may have given the APC a serious edge in the contest for presidential votes.
In quick succession, the Mimiko camp lost the likes of Hon. Gani Daodu representing Akoko North West and East Federal Constituency at the National Assembly, Hon. Gbenga Edema representing Ilaje Constituency II and Hon. Folasade Olasehinde representing Ose Constituency to the APC. More defections were to follow as Mimiko battled old members of his new party for control of party structure.
Although the coming of Mimko into Jonathan’s party initially boosted the chances of the president in the state considering the fact that Ondo was before now a Labour Party (LP) controlled state, his unending face-off with leaders of the party made nonsense of the political gains of his defection.
This argument is premised on the calculation that it was a united PDP, adequately supported by the then ruling Labour Party that gave Jonathan 85.66% of the total votes counted in the state in 2011. With the now ruling PDP torn to shreds and the LP no longer in Mimiko’s kitty, coupled with a fast growing opposition APC in the same state, pundits say Jonathan may not be able to win the oil rich state on March 28.
Jonathan and Buhari will fight hard for votes in Ondo State. Given that Ondo is now a PDP state following Mimiko’s defection and its proximity to the President’s native Bayelsa State as well as the large presence of Ijaw speaking communities in the oil producing area of the state, he will have a good showing in the southern part of the state.
But with Buhari running on the platform of the APC this time and the general feeling of marginalisation among the Yorubas, his performance in the mainland and other parts of the state will receive a serious boost from what it was in 2011. The situation in Ondo is such that Buhari may just enjoy a very slight victory over Jonathan in a close race.
Verdict: Narrow victory for Buhari and APC
LAGOS
Although President Jonathan in recent weeks made tremendous effort at swaying the electorate in Lagos in his favor, not much was achieved by his political maneuvers. If anything, the President and his team gave the people of the state ample opportunities to critically examine why they should vote for any of the two leading candidates.
Before now, Lagosians were disappointed that the President merely coming to Lagos when he launched his campaign, to attack personalities and not to discuss issues. The people, it appeared would have loved the President to tell the people about his achievement in office and how he intends to improve on the achievements.
Not even the recent attempt by the PDP to discredit APC’s national leader, Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu, appeared to have succeeded as polls continue to give the state to Buhari and his party. The near non-existing influence of Afenifere chieftains in the state is also a factor that made nonsense of the President’s effort to play the ethnic card in the state.
Thus, contrary to the posturing of people like Bode George, the most popular position is that Buhari will outshine Jonathan at the polls in Lagos State. APC’s control of political structures in the state is massive – from state to local council levels. This gives it an unparalleled ability to turn out the votes on polling day.
PDP’s attempt to play the ethnic card appealing to certain non-indigenous ethnic groups has been neutralized by APC getting its governors and leaders like Kwankwaso, Na’Abba and Buhari to speak directly with other ethnic groups whose numbers are equally large in the state.
Another terrible miscalculation was the pro-Jonathan rally held in Lagos by the Gani Adams-led Oodua Peoples Congress (OPC) and other supporters of the president. The event turned into an orgy of violence with motorists being harassed by gun-totting OPC members and billboards of APC members being vandalized. Public reactions to the outing have been decidedly negative for Jonathan and PDP.
By the time all of the above are placed side by side with the unending crises that have rocked the PDP in the state for years, Buhari is in pole position to prevail on March 28.
Verdict: APC 75%; PDP 25%
OGUN
An array of PDP chieftains, including controversial Buruji Kashamu, former party boss, Joju Fadairo and Doyin Okupe, amongst others, are working round the clock to deliver the votes in the state to Jonathan. They are no doubt determined to beat the APC to second place.
But matching the popularity of the ruling party and the wide acceptance of Governor Ibikunle Amosun is a huge task for Jonathan’s men. Consequently, Buhari’s visit to Abeokuta few days back was a huge success that saw the people of the Gateway State trooping out to see him.
An earlier visit by Jonathan also saw a mammoth crowd but the frenzy that greeted the APC rally gave indication of where the votes may go. Amosun’s track record of achievements, especially in the area of urban renewal, which has seen the massive construction of roads and bridges will be an added advantage for his party.
Also, the seeming ‘siddon look’ attitude of people like former Governor Gbenga Daniel, former Speaker Dimeji Bankole, Jubril Martins Kuye and a host of other aggrieved PDP leaders may work against Jonathan in the state unless something urgent is done.
The indisputable political place of ex-President Olusegun Obasanjo and his unhidden opposition to Jonathan’s aspiration, which peaked with his card-tearing exit from the party few weeks back, will also work in favor of Buhari and his party.
Verdict: APC to win with 70% to 30% vote spread
OYO
In Oyo state, the tattered state of Jonathan’s party may aid Buhari’s victory. APC also controls the state government. Pundits also say that aside, Oyo is a core Yoruba state where the feeling of marginalisation is deep-rooted.
Although the likes of Jumoke Akinjide, Jonathan’s minister from the state, and Senator Teslim Folarin, gubernatorial candidate, are of the opinion that the people will vote for the Presdient, indications that this may not be so are numerous. The daily defection of party leaders from the PDP, which started with the exit of former Governor Adebayo Alao-Akala remains an issue. Although it is believed that Ladoja and Alao-Akala are working for Jonathan’s candidacy unofficially.
With APC determined to hold on to the state, enjoying the support of all the first class monarchs including Alaafin of Oyo, Soun of Ogbomosho, Olubadan of Ibadan etc, Jonathan may find it difficult getting votes in Oyo.
Verdict: APC 80% – PDP 20%
CONCLUSION: General Buhari is projected to prevail in the North West, North East, North Central and South West, while President Jonathan would win in the South-South and South East.
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