With
the Independent National Electoral Commission, INEC, formally rolling
out its time table for the 2015 general election, it is expected that
the tempo of politicking will be on the upswing. OBIORA IFOH, OMEIZA
AJAYI and UBONG UKPONG take a look at what the political climate will be
like in the next one year.
Jega
The Independent National Electoral Commission!, INEC, in a statement
by its Secretary, Augusta Ogakwu, at the end of its retreat in Kaduna
last Friday, rolled out the much expected time table for the 2015
general election. The time table showed that the presidential and the
National Assembly elections were scheduled to hold on February 14, 2015
while the governorship and states Houses of Assembly elections were
slated for February 21, 2015.
The terse statement read: “Pursuant to the provisions of the
Constitution of the Federal Republic of Nigeria 1999 (as amended) and
the Electoral Act 2010 (as amended), the Independent National Electoral
Commission has released the timetable and schedule of activities leading
to the 2015 General Elections and the Ekiti and Osun governorship
elections.”
As expected, the reaction to that release was instantaneous as
politicians and political watchers have gone to town with critical
appraisal of the election timetable; while some say that INEC ought to
fix singular date for all elections, many others argue that staggered
election is all the system needs because of the past experience where
INEC couldn’t handle simple task of credibly holding elections in states
like Anambra, Delta and Edo.
In these election, particularly, in Anambra, INEC scored itself below
average and watchers are of the view that nothing has changed and that
if INEC should hold all elections same day, Nigeria will certainly
witness another calamitous exercise.
But with the release of the time table, the next one year will
certainly witness a beehive of activities as the stage will be set for
the political gladiators, starting with contentious debate over the
suitability or otherwise of a Goodluck Jonathan presidency, the return
ticket demand by the federal lawmakers as well the succession politics
in the states.
There will also be cases of alignment and realignment by the
political parties, particularly, in this era of cross carpeting and
decamping from one party to another both in the floor of the legislature
and by the state governors amongst others.
Will Jonathan’s declare soon?
Coincidentally, a day prior to INEC’s release of the time table,
President Jonathan, who was in Davos, Switzerland for the World Economic
Forum, told CNBC Africa that it would be wrong and unlawful for him to
declare his political ambition when the commission had not given its nod
for politicians to do so. Before then, the President had often cited
the need to concentrate on governance as reason for not openly making
his intention known but his body language and the utterances of some of
his lieutenants had often indicated that he is interested in taking
another shot at the presidency next year.
He had told the CNBC reporter that he would declare his intention
after INEC gives the go-ahead. He said: “INEC has a time frame within
which candidates are expected to declare. If you declare before that
time, you are actually contravening the Nigerian laws. So I won’t tell
anybody that I am contesting or that I’m not contesting. It is not
proper for me to do that. It is not proper for any Nigerian to declare
any interest now. If you do that you are contravening our electoral
laws.”
Recall that late last year, the then Bamanga Tukur led Peoples
Democratic Party, PDP, had shut the door on the aspiration of any other
party member, insisting that all over the world, a sitting President is
giving the privilege of the first right of refusal to contest the
presidency. That decision had significantly contributed largely to the
crack in the PDP with about seven governors (G7) opting to challenge
that party position.
The heat even became unbearable latter last year when the chairman of
the PDP Board of Trustees, BoT, Chief Tony Anenih openly accused
President Jonathan of stoking the crisis in the party because of his
reticence on the 2015 presidency particularly as it concerns his
declaration.
However, since INEC has now done its part, Nigerians are waiting with
bated breath to hear from the horse’s mouth. Jonathan has no other
reasons why he should not clear the air about his future political
ambition.
Chains of other declarations expected.
Undoubtedly, many partisan individuals and parties have been waiting
for the president’s declaration before knowing their next line of action
and since politics is not exactly of ideas in this part of the world,
some individuals will only jump into the fray only to find a way of
“reaching out” to the incumbent president, pledging electoral support
and then stepping down.
In the coming weeks, some opposition politicians are also expected to
declare their ambition even as these declarations will also generate a
lot of debates and court cases, ostensibly because certain politicians,
relying on sectional and sectarian interests, may want to stop another
politician from contesting.
At the national level, the contest is expected to be between the PDP
and the All Progressives Congress, APC. The other two major parties, the
Labour Party and the All Progressives Grand Alliance, APGA, appear not
to be interested in the top spot and may likely not be presenting
candidates for the presidency.
However, notable political top shots, including former Vice President
Atiku Abubarkar, former and serving governors from both the PDP and APC
are expected to context the presidency alongside President Jonathan. In
a few weeks, the tempo of intention to contest declaration will
intensify.
Parties putting their houses in order
Presently, both the PDP and APC are in crisis, in that while the
former’s big umbrella is clearly leaking, the big broom of the latter is
no longer a united bunch, but rather, mere broom sticks; but it is
expected that they will also begin to put their houses in order, if they
have any chances to compete favourably.
The PDP only two weeks ago had a change of leadership, with former
governor of Bauchi State, Adamu Mua’zu, now in the driving seat whereas,
the APC, with interim leadership still holding fort is expected to
elect a substantive executive.
Mua’zu only Tuesday accused the APC of being a poaching expert but
has boasted that in run to the general election, PDP would out-poach the
opposition party. He has also kick-started the troubleshooting efforts
by paying a visit to former President Olusegun and he is also in
advanced stage of wading into the crisis in the South-West zonal chapter
of the party.
As for the APC, the wind of prosperity and enlargement has not ceased
as many defectors are daily besieging the party with a few also
leaving. It is believed that if and when the party conducts, expectedly,
a successful convention later this quarter, the party will be in a good
position to put up a claim to the presidency. But observers are of the
view that the convention and the possible allocation of party and
elective positions to zones will make or mar the chances of the party
come 2015.
In the coming weeks, more political realignments and defections would
be witnessed in the National Assembly. Media reports of ‘thousands’ of
people defecting to either of the two leading parties are also expected
while some mushroom political parties will queue behind either of the
two major parties. This time around, with the APC also having a lot of
money, it is almost certain that not all the mushroom parties will queue
behind the PDP.
Governance at the receiving end
President Jonathan has often maintained that one reason why he was
finding it difficult to declare his intent was for the fear that
governance will suffer. Already, the directives by the APC to its
legislators to block all executive legislation as a result of an
entirely party matter has been eliciting some condemnation from all
quarters except the APC.
Now that INEC’s time table is out, it is expected that as many as are
in the government that has electoral ambition would quit office as
directed by the President. It is also expected that attention will shift
from delivery of democratic dividends to election campaign funding.
The 2011 elections was said to have been the most expenses venture in
the history of any elections in Africa and it is believed that 2015
will even be more. Opposition are already insinuating that reason why
there is cash crunch in the economy is because of the 2015 and the
piling of cash by the politicians for the elections.
Season for political jobbers
In 2011, one witnessed several groups lined up to drum up supports
and campaign for whoever they felt paid them better or could be useful
to them if eventually emerged victorious from the polls.
For instance, the Stella Oduah’s ‘Neighbour 2 Nighbour’ group
suddenly emerged as a political campaign tool, aligning with President
Jonathan, who deployed massive men, materials and money into the course.
It paid off, as the sponsor used it to penetrate the citizens and the
coordinator eventually now has a place in Aso Rock Villa, within the
federal cabinet.
Special Adviser to President Jonathan on Political Matters, Ahmed
Gulak, leading the Goodluck/Sambo Campaign Organisation, said that over
2000 quasi group came under the umbrella and worked for the Jonathan’s
presidency in 2011 and that all of them are still there to work for the
President against the 2015. There were other groups like Fresh Air, Door
2 Door amongst several others, who pursued diverse course during that
season.
Political watchers and analysts have said that this kind of groups
were likely to immediately begin to spring up, following the timetable
released by INEC, which signals the commencement of preparations for
political activities. Already, the Northern Elders Council, NEC, led by
veteran Tanko Yakassai debuted only yesterday, Wednesday to lead the
campaign for Jonathan in the North.
Meanwhile, sources have it that huge amounts of money had allegedly
been earmarked by President Jonathan to service such groups to foster
his 2015 presidential re-election. Other notable politicians were also
said to be keying into this strategy.
Thus, the political jobbers may have commenced packaging programmes
for politicians who are ready to finance their ideas towards the
actualisation of their ambitions.
Gold mine for printing presses
Analysts have observed that another direct implication of this
declaration is that politicians, their associates and political jobbers
would give more business to printers and printing houses. This is
because souvenirs like T-Shirts, caps, stationery, even posters, hand
bills, billboards, advertisement on vehicles would become a booming
business, as such businesses in the political sector were seasonal.
National Mirror spoke to an Abuja-based printer, Cyprian, who said
that printrs were virtually praying for that declaration by INEC. He
said: “My brother, it means good business coming to us in the printing
industry. As for me, I have installed new machines. I am ready to make
as much money as I could before the end of the season, because this is
one good opportunity for us to benefit from democracy too.”
The rise of pressure, religious, traditional and ethnic groups
For these categories, analysts said they would commence pressing home
certain demands both from government and individual politicians with a
view that there would be settlements in their favour.
Such ethnic and regional bodies like the South-South Peoples
Assembly, Ohaneze Ndigbo, Arewa Consultative Forum ACF, Afenifere, Odu’a
Peoples Congress, OPC, Northern Elders Forum, NEF, and lots more, would
actually wake up and begin to pursue some regional and ethnic interests
that would foster their collective welfare and existence in the
country.
It is also believed that politicians with ambition would also
commence consultations with these groups with a view to winning their
support and this would come with a lot of early negotiations for better
chances to both parties.
Presently, politicians have devised it as a strategy to take their
campaigns to the churches in the guise of going for worship. Already,
President Jonathan is criticised for indulging in this action alongside
other politicians.
An Abuja based cleric, who simply gave his name as Pastor
Livingstone, said it was true that most religious bodies like churches
and mosques and clerics are already catching in on the declaration and
have began to handover their pulpits to politicians in exchange for
money.
“…But God is watching from heaven. It is what God says will happen
that will happen. They are free to continue, but members cannot be
fooled. They will vote their consciences,” he told National Mirror in
Abuja.
It was also observed that serious political consultations and
endorsements would also kick start in the palaces of traditional rulers.
Militia groups to seize the opportunity
The militants and militia groups too were also said to be ready to
take advantage of the declaration to strategise and seek possible ways
to benefit as seen during the 2011 era. At that period, groups like
Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta, MEND, Boko Haram in
the North, Movement for the Sovereign State of Biafra, MASSOB, in South
East, OPC in the South West amongst others sought to be reckoned with,
and analysts said this may immediately begin to play out again.
Politicians have been accused of arming and deploying these militia,
to achieve political advantage during elections. But in their trails are
bloodletting and wanton destruction of property.
These will really be interesting times, particularly with an earlier
prediction by some foreign nations that Nigeria will not survive 2015.
It is up to Nigerians to prove them wrong and by so doing, getting their
acts right and making the best of the election period, by making it
crisis-free.
