With
the Independent National Electoral Commission, INEC, formally rolling
out its time table for the 2015 general election, it is expected that
the tempo of politicking will be on the upswing. OBIORA IFOH, OMEIZA
AJAYI and UBONG UKPONG take a look at what the political climate will be
like in the next one year.
Jega
The terse statement read: “Pursuant to the provisions of the Constitution of the Federal Republic of Nigeria 1999 (as amended) and the Electoral Act 2010 (as amended), the Independent National Electoral Commission has released the timetable and schedule of activities leading to the 2015 General Elections and the Ekiti and Osun governorship elections.”
As expected, the reaction to that release was instantaneous as politicians and political watchers have gone to town with critical appraisal of the election timetable; while some say that INEC ought to fix singular date for all elections, many others argue that staggered election is all the system needs because of the past experience where INEC couldn’t handle simple task of credibly holding elections in states like Anambra, Delta and Edo.
In these election, particularly, in Anambra, INEC scored itself below average and watchers are of the view that nothing has changed and that if INEC should hold all elections same day, Nigeria will certainly witness another calamitous exercise.
But with the release of the time table, the next one year will certainly witness a beehive of activities as the stage will be set for the political gladiators, starting with contentious debate over the suitability or otherwise of a Goodluck Jonathan presidency, the return ticket demand by the federal lawmakers as well the succession politics in the states.
There will also be cases of alignment and realignment by the political parties, particularly, in this era of cross carpeting and decamping from one party to another both in the floor of the legislature and by the state governors amongst others.
Will Jonathan’s declare soon?
Coincidentally, a day prior to INEC’s release of the time table, President Jonathan, who was in Davos, Switzerland for the World Economic Forum, told CNBC Africa that it would be wrong and unlawful for him to declare his political ambition when the commission had not given its nod for politicians to do so. Before then, the President had often cited the need to concentrate on governance as reason for not openly making his intention known but his body language and the utterances of some of his lieutenants had often indicated that he is interested in taking another shot at the presidency next year.
He had told the CNBC reporter that he would declare his intention after INEC gives the go-ahead. He said: “INEC has a time frame within which candidates are expected to declare. If you declare before that time, you are actually contravening the Nigerian laws. So I won’t tell anybody that I am contesting or that I’m not contesting. It is not proper for me to do that. It is not proper for any Nigerian to declare any interest now. If you do that you are contravening our electoral laws.”
Recall that late last year, the then Bamanga Tukur led Peoples Democratic Party, PDP, had shut the door on the aspiration of any other party member, insisting that all over the world, a sitting President is giving the privilege of the first right of refusal to contest the presidency. That decision had significantly contributed largely to the crack in the PDP with about seven governors (G7) opting to challenge that party position.
The heat even became unbearable latter last year when the chairman of the PDP Board of Trustees, BoT, Chief Tony Anenih openly accused President Jonathan of stoking the crisis in the party because of his reticence on the 2015 presidency particularly as it concerns his declaration.
However, since INEC has now done its part, Nigerians are waiting with bated breath to hear from the horse’s mouth. Jonathan has no other reasons why he should not clear the air about his future political ambition.
Chains of other declarations expected.
Undoubtedly, many partisan individuals and parties have been waiting for the president’s declaration before knowing their next line of action and since politics is not exactly of ideas in this part of the world, some individuals will only jump into the fray only to find a way of “reaching out” to the incumbent president, pledging electoral support and then stepping down.
In the coming weeks, some opposition politicians are also expected to declare their ambition even as these declarations will also generate a lot of debates and court cases, ostensibly because certain politicians, relying on sectional and sectarian interests, may want to stop another politician from contesting.
At the national level, the contest is expected to be between the PDP and the All Progressives Congress, APC. The other two major parties, the Labour Party and the All Progressives Grand Alliance, APGA, appear not to be interested in the top spot and may likely not be presenting candidates for the presidency.
However, notable political top shots, including former Vice President Atiku Abubarkar, former and serving governors from both the PDP and APC are expected to context the presidency alongside President Jonathan. In a few weeks, the tempo of intention to contest declaration will intensify.
Parties putting their houses in order
Presently, both the PDP and APC are in crisis, in that while the former’s big umbrella is clearly leaking, the big broom of the latter is no longer a united bunch, but rather, mere broom sticks; but it is expected that they will also begin to put their houses in order, if they have any chances to compete favourably.
The PDP only two weeks ago had a change of leadership, with former governor of Bauchi State, Adamu Mua’zu, now in the driving seat whereas, the APC, with interim leadership still holding fort is expected to elect a substantive executive.
Mua’zu only Tuesday accused the APC of being a poaching expert but has boasted that in run to the general election, PDP would out-poach the opposition party. He has also kick-started the troubleshooting efforts by paying a visit to former President Olusegun and he is also in advanced stage of wading into the crisis in the South-West zonal chapter of the party.
As for the APC, the wind of prosperity and enlargement has not ceased as many defectors are daily besieging the party with a few also leaving. It is believed that if and when the party conducts, expectedly, a successful convention later this quarter, the party will be in a good position to put up a claim to the presidency. But observers are of the view that the convention and the possible allocation of party and elective positions to zones will make or mar the chances of the party come 2015.
In the coming weeks, more political realignments and defections would be witnessed in the National Assembly. Media reports of ‘thousands’ of people defecting to either of the two leading parties are also expected while some mushroom political parties will queue behind either of the two major parties. This time around, with the APC also having a lot of money, it is almost certain that not all the mushroom parties will queue behind the PDP.
Governance at the receiving end
President Jonathan has often maintained that one reason why he was finding it difficult to declare his intent was for the fear that governance will suffer. Already, the directives by the APC to its legislators to block all executive legislation as a result of an entirely party matter has been eliciting some condemnation from all quarters except the APC.
Now that INEC’s time table is out, it is expected that as many as are in the government that has electoral ambition would quit office as directed by the President. It is also expected that attention will shift from delivery of democratic dividends to election campaign funding.
The 2011 elections was said to have been the most expenses venture in the history of any elections in Africa and it is believed that 2015 will even be more. Opposition are already insinuating that reason why there is cash crunch in the economy is because of the 2015 and the piling of cash by the politicians for the elections.
Season for political jobbers
In 2011, one witnessed several groups lined up to drum up supports and campaign for whoever they felt paid them better or could be useful to them if eventually emerged victorious from the polls.
For instance, the Stella Oduah’s ‘Neighbour 2 Nighbour’ group suddenly emerged as a political campaign tool, aligning with President Jonathan, who deployed massive men, materials and money into the course. It paid off, as the sponsor used it to penetrate the citizens and the coordinator eventually now has a place in Aso Rock Villa, within the federal cabinet.
Special Adviser to President Jonathan on Political Matters, Ahmed Gulak, leading the Goodluck/Sambo Campaign Organisation, said that over 2000 quasi group came under the umbrella and worked for the Jonathan’s presidency in 2011 and that all of them are still there to work for the President against the 2015. There were other groups like Fresh Air, Door 2 Door amongst several others, who pursued diverse course during that season.
Political watchers and analysts have said that this kind of groups were likely to immediately begin to spring up, following the timetable released by INEC, which signals the commencement of preparations for political activities. Already, the Northern Elders Council, NEC, led by veteran Tanko Yakassai debuted only yesterday, Wednesday to lead the campaign for Jonathan in the North.
Meanwhile, sources have it that huge amounts of money had allegedly been earmarked by President Jonathan to service such groups to foster his 2015 presidential re-election. Other notable politicians were also said to be keying into this strategy.
Thus, the political jobbers may have commenced packaging programmes for politicians who are ready to finance their ideas towards the actualisation of their ambitions.
Gold mine for printing presses
Analysts have observed that another direct implication of this declaration is that politicians, their associates and political jobbers would give more business to printers and printing houses. This is because souvenirs like T-Shirts, caps, stationery, even posters, hand bills, billboards, advertisement on vehicles would become a booming business, as such businesses in the political sector were seasonal.
National Mirror spoke to an Abuja-based printer, Cyprian, who said that printrs were virtually praying for that declaration by INEC. He said: “My brother, it means good business coming to us in the printing industry. As for me, I have installed new machines. I am ready to make as much money as I could before the end of the season, because this is one good opportunity for us to benefit from democracy too.”
The rise of pressure, religious, traditional and ethnic groups
For these categories, analysts said they would commence pressing home certain demands both from government and individual politicians with a view that there would be settlements in their favour.
Such ethnic and regional bodies like the South-South Peoples Assembly, Ohaneze Ndigbo, Arewa Consultative Forum ACF, Afenifere, Odu’a Peoples Congress, OPC, Northern Elders Forum, NEF, and lots more, would actually wake up and begin to pursue some regional and ethnic interests that would foster their collective welfare and existence in the country.
It is also believed that politicians with ambition would also commence consultations with these groups with a view to winning their support and this would come with a lot of early negotiations for better chances to both parties.
Presently, politicians have devised it as a strategy to take their campaigns to the churches in the guise of going for worship. Already, President Jonathan is criticised for indulging in this action alongside other politicians.
An Abuja based cleric, who simply gave his name as Pastor Livingstone, said it was true that most religious bodies like churches and mosques and clerics are already catching in on the declaration and have began to handover their pulpits to politicians in exchange for money.
“…But God is watching from heaven. It is what God says will happen that will happen. They are free to continue, but members cannot be fooled. They will vote their consciences,” he told National Mirror in Abuja.
It was also observed that serious political consultations and endorsements would also kick start in the palaces of traditional rulers.
Militia groups to seize the opportunity
The militants and militia groups too were also said to be ready to take advantage of the declaration to strategise and seek possible ways to benefit as seen during the 2011 era. At that period, groups like Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta, MEND, Boko Haram in the North, Movement for the Sovereign State of Biafra, MASSOB, in South East, OPC in the South West amongst others sought to be reckoned with, and analysts said this may immediately begin to play out again.
Politicians have been accused of arming and deploying these militia, to achieve political advantage during elections. But in their trails are bloodletting and wanton destruction of property.
These will really be interesting times, particularly with an earlier prediction by some foreign nations that Nigeria will not survive 2015. It is up to Nigerians to prove them wrong and by so doing, getting their acts right and making the best of the election period, by making it crisis-free.
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